Apple

Short-term analysis (8-hour chart)

After the Apple share price reached its high of $237.23 within the red box exactly as forecast, it has started to fall as expected. We assume that we have only seen the first part of the correction wave [2] at the low of $196.00. If the share does not fall any further now, there could be a recovery phase to the red box region at $216.62 to $232.57. This is our preference. This is our preference. After that, however, the share will extend the last of the three corrective phases to the downside. We still see the ideal target of the correction wave [2] within the purple box between 180.70$ and 148.36$. A very strong upward trend reversal should occur there. We are planning to buy there. And even if the share rises further, we see this as part of the correction. The recovery phase has room up to the area of the red circle at $246.96 to $254.30. We expect a final sell-off there at the latest, also into the purple box. Warren Buffet reduced his shares by around half in the last quarter. Like us, he also predicted a significant high, but we do not think that the share price will fall so far as to justify a halving. However, there is also an alternative, which we explain on the next chart.

Long-term analysis (3-day chart)

In principle, it is possible that Apple completed a significantly higher cycle at the high of $237.23, namely a superordinate old wave (III). If this is the case, the share would correct much more sharply and fall to the region of the purple circle at $118.31 to $98.35, only reversing the trend sustainably from there. And that could be exactly what Warren Buffet fears. This is certainly a realistic risk for the share. Nevertheless, we do not believe that this scenario will prevail. It is our long-term alternative, which we must of course keep in mind. Instead, we assume that Apple will be able to catch itself at the latest in the area of the purple box at $180.70 to $148.36 and return to the uptrend in order to reach the long-term target in the red box at the top of the chart at $350.29 to $393.48. In our view, this also fits in much better with the Nasdaq index, the Dow Jones index and the S&P 500 index and also with the driving forces, namely the majority of strong technology stocks such as Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Nvidia. Only Tesla could sell off a little more, and in the case of Nvidia it will soon be decided whether the share price will rise even further or whether it will already collapse.

Short-term analysis (8-hour chart)

Apple has performed perfectly in line with our forecast and has pushed the red box all the way to the top. We think that the high of $237.23 has been reached. The share should now enter a stronger correction, the target of which we see in the area of the purple box at $180.70 to $148.36. We expect a strong upward trend reversal there and thus a return to the upward trend. We want to buy the share at the lower end of this range. This also fits in very well with the general weakness of technology stocks on the Nasdaq and thus also with the Nasdaq itself. We now also see this stock triggering a correction. Alternatively, the bulls will succeed in initiating an upward trend reversal in the area of the purple circle at $210.96 to $202.84. In this case, the share would still have room up to the red circle at $256.17 to $284.12. The consequence would be that the stronger correction would then start from there. The ideal target would then be around USD 179.29, which would be almost the same. Strategically, this makes no difference to us: once the correction is over, we will buy the stock and not sell any shares already in our portfolio.

Long-term analysis (3-day chart)

However, the long-term picture has changed somewhat in our favor due to the very strong rise in the share price. The next low within the purple box is slightly higher, meaning that the share can move significantly higher once the correction is complete. We see the long-term target on the upside in the area of the red box at USD 350.29 to USD 393.48. If the share continues to adhere to our forecast, we are looking at a very strong rise of around 100 %. We have calculated the target on the upside along the ideal target of the correction at $167.36. The problem, however, is that by reaching the red box at USD 237.23, the share has also reached a good target for a superordinate wave (III). If the stock now slips significantly lower and does not respect the purple box, we must expect a correction wave (IV) at a higher wave level. In this case, the share would then fall further down to the area of the purple circle at 118.31$ to 98.35$. This is certainly a realistic risk that we should keep an eye on. However, we currently consider this to be less likely than our forecast.

Short-term analysis (8-hour chart)

Perfect! Apple skips an intermediate step and immediately extends the higher-level wave [1]. This impressively cements the fact that the stock is and remains extremely bullish. However, we must now slowly prepare ourselves for a very prominent high, which will be extended in the red box between $209.84 and $238.14. In our last long-term analysis of Apple, we also identified this red box as the important next target. The minimum target has already been reached, but we still think that there could be another meter in it. The ideal target is $222.29. Once the high has been reached, the share will probably enter a stronger correction, the target of which we currently see in the area of the purple box at $173.23 to $145.17. As soon as the high is determined, we will calculate the box exactly and publish it here. This correction will not break the overriding bullish uptrend, but will form a further foundation for an extremely bullish performance overall. Every long-distance runner needs to take a breather, and that is exactly what this share needs. This is a great advantage for us because it will give us a perfect buying opportunity.

Long-term analysis (3-day chart)

And here we see exactly the same chart as in our last analysis published on Apple. The share is adhering exactly to our overarching roadmap. In the long term, once the coming correction has been worked through, the share price will continue to rise strongly. Our next target after the correction is the red box at the top of the chart at USD 320.41 to USD 357.89, but this is only an intermediate step on the long way up. In this respect, the upcoming buying opportunity within the purple box is of extremely strategic importance. We do not see a real alternative at present, except for a significantly higher high above the red box. That is fine with us. The higher it goes, the better for us as investors. Apple is and remains one of the most important stocks in our portfolio.

Short-term analysis (8-hour chart)

Apple is being heavily criticized. The days when queues stretched for miles outside Apple stores when a new product was released are over. The great Apple euphoria seems to be over. In the past, the launch of the Apple Vision Pro glasses might have caused a storm of joy. Today, it's almost just a side note in the press. Meta also has one, as does Microsoft, and others will follow. There are even voices saying that Tim Cook, the current CEO of Apple, is a bad choice. We don't want to judge that, but we can say one thing for sure: not much has come from Apple since Steve Jobs left. The big project to build an electric car was scrapped after 10 years and many billions of dollars. Xiaomi, the Chinese counterpart to Apple, presented an electric vehicle in March. Perhaps others are better? Warren Buffet has reduced his stake in Apple. We wouldn't go that far just yet, but even if this share is currently rising, we are only cautiously optimistic. The share has been plaguing us with a sideways movement since July 2023 (!) and has not really gotten off the ground since then, while others have shot up like a rocket during this time. Nvidia, Meta and Microsoft, for example. However, positive or negative press alone does not make a price. Otherwise the crypto market would already be dead as a doornail. Numerous coins shine through their mere existence and the existence of a website with promising applications for which the respective coin could be good. Nothing more. And yet these things are on the rise. In other words, a product doesn't necessarily have to be any good to give the share price wings. But we don't want to bore you any further with this. What we want to say is this. Apple can continue to rise despite the increasing criticism at the moment. However, a few criteria must be met for this to be sustainable. If the share now succeeds in pushing the current momentum movement further upwards to the ideal zone of the red box at $193.61 to $205.10, it will then form an interim correction, the end of which must be able to hold well above $164.08. If it is ideal, then this correction will turn into an upward trend reversal in the area of the purple box between 182.80$ and 171.80$. If the share succeeds in doing so, it could enter a sustained uptrend. However, the risk of a final sell-off down to the zone of the purple circle at 152.46$ to 140.02$ remains until Apple manages to leave the 212.37$ level on the upside. We are not taking any action. We are leaving our shares as they are. We will only consider buying later. We will take a closer look at this on the next chart in our long-term analysis.

Long-term analysis (3-day chart)

Fortunately, the market moves in waves. This may be a burden for some, not to say an incomprehensible absurdity, but that's the way it is. We are glad, because this always gives us the opportunity to assess the market very well and predict upcoming lows in good time so that we can take advantage of them. If the Apple share succeeds in establishing an upward trend, it will approach a significant high. We currently see this in the area of the red box here in the chart at USD 209.84 to USD 238.14, which also represents the minimum target. We expect a stronger correction there, the bottom of which we can use for a purchase. And that is exactly what we have been expecting from Apple so far. The larger correction we have predicted so far will merely be triggered at a later point in time and at somewhat higher prices. Little has been gained. We would still be much happier if Apple were to put this correction behind it right now. And that would mean that the share is still stuck in the correction that has been going on since last summer. In this case, it would fall to the zone of the purple circle, where we would buy in, and then it could make a really strong run upwards. However, based on the current movement, this is somewhat less likely than the path outlined in this chart. However, it is also clear that Apple's long-term bottom is $124.17!

Short-term analysis (8-hour chart)

Apple's performance is somewhat disappointing (it has already fallen below our last purple box), but - on closer inspection - a stroke of luck. We no longer expect the share to recover in the long term. Even if we were to see an upward movement in the near future, this would most likely be of a corrective nature and would still be part of an overarching correction. The formation as a whole looks very corrective to us. The share should have broken out to the upside long ago and exceeded $211.86. Until then, there is room for a corrective upward movement. And this target has not even been reached yet. We think that the $165.30 level will not hold. If it falls below this level, we can be sure that Apple will continue on its way down to the purple box at 152.46$ to 140.02$. There, however, we expect a strong trend reversal to the upside. The stroke of luck consists of two things: First, we get a very good buying opportunity in the area of the purple box at very favorable prices, and second, this recovery on the downside will make Apple perform much stronger in the long term than it could without this correction. We take a closer look at this in the subsequent chart, our long-term analysis.

Long-term analysis (3-day chart)

What looks like a disadvantage in the short term, namely significantly lower prices, is an enormous advantage in the long term. When Apple is finished with the current correction in the area of the purple box at 152.46$ to 140.02$, the stock will make a very strong upward move. In the next higher-level step we expect prices in the area of the red box at 272.29$ to 300.58$. Then a stronger interim correction and then the final upward move to the red box at the top of the chart between $318.05 and $374.63. This is a very good outlook, because from the purple box to the very top there is at least around 100% upside potential, which we have ahead of us with the upcoming purchase at the bottom of the purple box. Alternatively, Apple is still stuck in the correction wave [4]. In this case, the share would slide even lower down to the zone of the purple circle at $121.43 to $102.51. However, we believe this is much less likely than our forecast. All in all, the correction at Apple makes a lot of sense, as the indices, especially the Nasdaq, will also enter corrections in the near future. In this respect, everything is proceeding according to plan and in sync.

Short-term analysis (4-hour chart)

Apple has so far just missed the minimum target for a corrective wave (2). The most recent upward movement is a three-part structure and therefore of a corrective nature. In this respect, a final sell-off is now to be expected. The share has two possibilities for a sustained low: Either the price slips into our purple box between $178.41 and $169.18 according to our forecast, completes an upward trend reversal there and builds a full five-part impulse upwards in the next intermediate step to the first red box at the top of the chart at $233.94 to $247.05. After that, it should fall back a little to around $212.73. And then up to the red box at the top of the chart between $255.15 and $281.37. Or Apple slides further down. If the share fails to hold the last low of $165.30, we must ultimately expect prices in the area of our purple circle at $152.46 to $140.02. We expect a sustained upward trend reversal there at the latest. This scenario would have the advantage that we would have a very good chance of buying at very favorable prices. In this respect, we would prefer this scenario.

Long-term analysis (3-day chart)

The decisive factor is that we can assume that the low of USD 124.17 marks a long-term bottom for this share. This means that further price action will take place above this price level. Our forecast is that Apple is still within the upward movement up to the red box between $228.73 (minimum target) and $293.36 and that a stronger correction will only start there, which could bring the price below the current price level. Alternatively, in the short to medium term, the share price will fall significantly further back to the zone of the purple circle between 152.46$ and 140.02$. The advantage would then be twofold. Not only could we buy Apple shares again very cheaply, but we could also expect a much stronger upward movement that could push the share price above $300 in the long term. In this respect, we can now clearly see why this scenario would be the much better one. At present, however, it is somewhat more likely that Apple will make do with the minor interim correction.

Short-term analysis

Apple continues to adhere perfectly to our forecast. It will soon be decided whether Apple will soon return to the overarching uptrend or whether the share still needs a slightly lower low. We assume that Apple will soon form a low within our purple box at $178.41 to $172.64 and then reverse the trend upwards to the two red boxes. We believe this is structurally more plausible. In the next higher-level step, the share runs up to the first red box at $233.94 to $247.05, corrects back slightly and then rises further up to the red box at the top of the chart at $255.15 to $281.37. At this point, we expect a strong correction. We expect a strong correction there. We would prefer the alternative, even if this initially means further price declines. In this case, the price would fall further, fall below $165.30 and only form a low in the area of our purple circle between $152.46 and $140.02. The advantage would be twofold. The advantage would be twofold: we would have the chance of even more favorable purchase prices, and secondly, the upward movement that would start after reaching the low would develop considerably more upward momentum and thus form the anticipated high well above $300. We take a closer look at this in the next chart, our long-term analysis.

Long-term analysis

First of all, we are sticking to our forecast that Apple is already within the upward movement up to our red box at USD 228.73 to USD 293.36. This is also in line with the calculations from the detailed analysis. The red box here is somewhat larger because it refers to the big III and IV. It represents the ideal target for wave V of (III) (the route upwards along the ideal targets is precisely calculated in the detailed chart). The alternative scenario would be significantly better insofar as Apple would lay the foundation for a strong five-part upward impulse through the old[1] and old[2]. As already described, this would push the share price up to the region of our red circle at the top of the chart at USD 333 in the long term. In this respect, we would much prefer the alternative. We also expect stronger corrections in the US indices in the near future. This would then fit in better with the alternative scenario. We will know shortly. Should the alternative prevail, we will take advantage of the bottom of the old wave[2] and buy Apple again at very favorable prices.

Short-term analysis

Patience is a virtue and it is usually rewarded. The wait was also worth it for Apple. We assume that Apple took a very long time to finally complete the wave [4] as a triangle. The price fell slightly below our target box, but respected the important level of USD 164.43 and did not fall below it again. We are therefore confident that the share price can now rise further up to our red box at USD 228.73 to USD 257.15 and possibly even higher. We have bought Apple because we consider the distance to the red box to be sufficiently attractive. The alternative is still possible. In this case, a drop to the area of our purple circle at 152.46$ to 140.02$ would be likely. This sounds negative at first, but would be better for the stock in the long term, as we would then have created a very bullish scenario in the chart, which would allow prices well above the red target box in the long term. However, we consider the probability of this to be much lower than a continuation of the upward trend. Moreover, in this scenario we could also initially expect prices to rise to around the region of our red circle at USD 198.23 to USD 211.86 before the final downward movement begins. However, we are as good as certain of this route. Reason enough for us to make another purchase.

Long-term analysis

Here we can see more clearly what the long-term advantage of the alternative would be. We would be dealing with a large five-part structure overall, which would require considerably more space on the upside than the scenario envisaged in our forecast. In this respect, it would even be better in this case if the share price were to move downwards first. However, we assume that Apple will now continue to rise upwards to our red box at $228.73 to $293.36, with the ideal level of the upward movement being $257.15. Up there we expect a very significant high and a correspondingly strong correction, which could easily fall below the current price level. However, we still have some time until then. For now, it should continue upwards.

Short-term analysis

Unfortunately, Apple has not yet been able to escape the correction. However, we believe that this should be over shortly. The price can either take off directly or touch the lower edge of our purple box at $170.89 and then turn upwards. The next upward movement will take the price to at least 228.73$, ideally to 257.15$. Technically, the correction has room to reach 164.43$. However, should the price break through this important price level to the downside, we must expect prices in the area of our purple circle between 152.46$ and 140.02$ in the worst case. A sustained upward trend reversal can be expected there at the latest. However, this alternative route would have major advantages for us. We take a closer look at this in the subsequent chart, our long-term analysis.

Long-term analysis

Apple has worked through its last major correction at the low of 124.17$ and has digested it well since then. It is very nice that the upward movement was able to extend to a new and significant all-time high. Apple is in an uptrend with a red box target between $228.73 and $293.36, with the ideal target being $257.15. Up there we can expect a very striking high and a subsequent major correction, which will most likely be even lower than the current price level. In this respect, buying more is currently not an option for us. Unless Apple decides to take the alternative route and returns directly to the zone of our purple circle between 152.46$ and 140.02$. This would significantly improve the overall picture. We would not only have the opportunity to buy Apple at a lower price. A deeper recovery in the share price would provide more strength on the upside in the long term. We would then be dealing with a much larger impulsive move to the upside, which would shift the striking high significantly upwards. We could then expect prices of up to around 333$. We would definitely prefer the alternative route.

Short-term analysis

Apple is now at a critical point. The fact that Apple has respected the $170.78 level and has not left it to the downside speaks in favor of a continuation of the upward movement. The fact that our purple box has been left to the downside and that the correction for a wave (4) has come a little low speaks against this. Nevertheless, we are (still) sticking to our forecast of a continuation of the upward movement. We see our red box at USD 203.67 to USD 223.43 as the next interim target. Ideally, the price would end up at $212.36 and thus above the important price level of $209.21. A corrective upward movement would technically have room up to this level. However, we can recognize this earlier. Because if Apple develops a five-part and not a three-part structure to the upside, we know that we are right with our forecast. At the top of our red box ($203.67 to $223.43), we expect a stronger correction, which should, however, calm down above $170.78. We see Apple within a large upward impulse up to the red target area at the top of the chart at $259.60 to $296.47. However, we would like it much better if Apple were now merely to extend a corrective three-part upward movement and complete a final sell-off to the target area of our purple circle at $152.46 to $140.02. It would be a stroke of luck, because this opportunity for very favorable prices would be the last for some time. After that, Apple will continue to shoot upwards.

Long-term analysis

Here we can clearly see that the alternative route via our purple circle at 152.46$ to 140.02$ would not only have the advantage that we could buy Apple very cheaply again, but also that Apple would develop considerably more pressure on the upside. Prices above $330 would be possible in the long term. In both scenarios, however, we assume that the share price will not fall below the low of $124.17. Apple is in an uptrend to at least our red box at the top of the chart at $257.15 to $333.28. The question is whether we are dealing with a coherent upward movement directly to our red box or whether Apple will fall significantly lower again.